Rush The Court

John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

Standings

1. Butler 17-0
2. Wright State 11-5
3. Green Bay 10-6
4. Valparaiso 10-7
5. Cleveland State 9-7
6. Milwaukee 8-8
7. Detroit 7-9
8. Loyola (IL) 5-11
9. UIC 2-14
10. Youngstown State 2-14

Top Storylines

• The quest for perfection: Butler is now one game away from perfection during the regular season in the Horizon League. The final game is at Valparaiso next Friday. Before that, though, Siena will test the Bulldogs in the BracketBuster game on Saturday. It is the first nationally televised game at 11:00 AM EST.
• The hot team: Now the hot teams are Wright State and Milwaukee. The Raiders have moved into a convincing second place in conference, but they still have two road games remaining. Milwaukee has climbed into the sixth seed in conference and has two games in Chicago after it’s BracketBuster game to improve its seeding. The Panthers lost to Loyola at home earlier this season, so they’ll be looking for revenge at the Gentile Center.
• The most exciting team: Valparaiso is probably a season away from being a top contender in the Horizon League, but the Crusaders sure do play an entertaining style of basketball. They’ve haven’t played a game in the 60s points-wise since going to UIC on January 21.
• The race for #2:  Technically four teams can get to 11-7 in conference still and capture the double-bye in the Horizon League tournament opposite of Butler. Here are the four teams still trying to capture that spot. If Wright State wins out they’ll obviously take the top spot, but that might be more difficult than it seems. The game at Cleveland State is a big pothole.

Team: Remaining League Games, Predicted Record

• Wright State: @Youngstown State, @Cleveland State, 12-6
• Green Bay: @UIC, @Loyola, 11-7
• Cleveland State: Detroit, Wright State, 10-8
• Valparaiso: Butler, 10-8

And a projected first round:

• #10 Youngstown @ #3 Green Bay
• #7 Detroit @ #6 Milwaukee
• #9 UIC @ #4 Cleveland State
• #8 Loyola @ #5 Valparaiso

The 5-8 and 6-7 games in this scenario would be excellent. Valparaiso just held off a furious late-game charge from Loyola to force the Ramblers onto the road for the first playoff game. Also, because of Detroit’s fall from grace they’d now have to play at Milwaukee in the first round. That’s a big switch.

A Possession-Free World

I keep possession-free statistics for the entire Horizon League. Here are some superlatives at this moment in conference.

• Best Offense: Butler (#2 is Valparaiso)
• Worst Offense: UIC
• Best Defense: Butler (#2 is Detroit)
• Worst Defense: Valparaiso
• Luckiest: Green Bay
• Unluckiest: Detroit

Another fun possession-free fact is that there are four teams bunched together now in the middle of the league. While Butler is the clear top dog, Wright State is number two, Detroit is number three (contrary to what their record says) and then there is a bunch. Milwaukee, Green Bay, Cleveland State and Valparaiso all get it done in different ways, but they’re essentially the same in terms of play in conference. Milwaukee plays a little more defense than the others, Valparaiso has a bit more explosive offense — but when you get down to it they all score about 0.1 points per possession more than their opponents in the league.

Finally, Bracket Busters is this weekend. My predictions for the 10 games.

1. Siena vs. Butler – Bulldogs squeak out a close one
2. Wright State at Ohio – Raiders should win, even on the road
3. Indiana State vs. Green Bay – Phoenix are tough to beat at home
4. Toledo vs. Cleveland State – Vikings should crush Rockets at home
5. Valparaiso at Bowling Green – A tough game on the road, Crusaders might fall
6. Niagara vs. Milwaukee – Panthers with a tough game against a MAAC foe, but at home
7. Eastern Michigan vs. Detroit – The Titans can get back on track with a win
8. Loyola at Creighton – A very tough match-up, Ramblers should fall in Omaha
9. Youngstown State at UC Riverside – Tough trip west for the Penguins
10. UIC at Evansville – Flames struggle on the road, might lose this bottom feeder battle

Overall it looks like the Horizon League could go 7-3 in BracketBusters this weekend. It will be a lot of fun to watch – well at least what few games are available on tv. Butler is the only Horizon League team on national television this season.