RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.
Another week gone by in college basketball, another snapshot of the bubble picture provided…
Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple
Xavier (21 RPI, 19 SOS)- The Musketeers are bordering on lock status after their enormous bubble win at Florida last Saturday. The only factor preventing such an accolade is the lack of quality non-conference wins. They played Baylor, Butler and Wake Forest extremely tight, yet could only come out on the winning end against Cincinnati and the aforementioned Florida game. Xavier has beaten Charlotte, Dayton and Rhode Island at home. Win at Charlotte on Saturday and the Musketeers should be in. Current seed range: 6-8.
Rhode Island (22 RPI, 37 SOS)– URI could be the highest-RPI team left out of the bracket if they don’t start picking up quality wins to boost their resume. Winning one of their two nail-biter home defeats at the hands of Temple and Richmond would have been enormous for their NCAA hopes. Fortunately, they only face two threatening games the rest of the way- at St. Louis Wednesday night and vs. Charlotte on March 3. There’s a very realistic chance the Rams could win out and receive a bid, but they won’t have another chance against an RPI top-25 opponent until the A-10 tournament. Current seed range: 10-11.
Richmond (27 RPI, 49 SOS)– Other than Temple, the Spiders have the most impressive portfolio of any Atlantic 10 team. They picked up neutral court wins over bubble teams Mississippi State, Missouri and Florida in non-conference play and are currently riding a six-game winning streak in A-10 play with wins over Temple and at Rhode Island mixed in. They’re 4-2 vs. the RPI top 50 and currently lead the conference with a 9-2 record. Win just one of their last three- at Xavier, Dayton, at Charlotte- and the Spiders will be dancing. Current seed range: 7-8.
Dayton (34 RPI, 33 SOS)– The Flyers put themselves back into a precarious position by falling in heartbreak fashion at St. Louis on Saturday. They’re just 1-5 vs. RPI top 25 opponents but do have two solid wins in non-conference play over Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. Dayton still must travel to Temple and Richmond on their A-10 slate; split those two games and they’re in decent position, lose both and the Flyers could be 1-7 vs. RPI top 25 teams and squarely on the bubble at 21-9 (10-6). Current seed range: 11-12.
Charlotte (41 RPI, 117 SOS)– All in all, the 49ers are in a solid position for a bid. The win at Louisville looks stronger now that the Cardinals are in the field, plus Charlotte knocked off Temple at home and Richmond on the road during conference play. They welcome Xavier and Richmond to Charlotte and also must travel to Rhode Island in three of their last six games. Finish 4-2 in that stretch and it’s going to be awfully hard to deny a bid to a 12-4 Atlantic 10 squad. Current seed range: 10-11.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest.
Georgia Tech (29 RPI, 14 SOS)– With road games remaining at Maryland and at Clemson, it’s likely the Yellow Jackets finish ACC play at a pedestrian 8-8 record. Still, it’s going to be hard to put them on the bubble with five wins over the RPI top 50 (possibly six if Virginia Tech jumps into that category and they beat the Hokies at home on March 6) including victories over Duke, Wake Forest and Clemson. Just stealing one of those road contests would make it a near certainty Paul Hewitt is back dancing. Current seed: 8-9.
Clemson (32 RPI, 31 SOS)– I wouldn’t feel at ease if I’m a Clemson fan. The Tigers may have stellar computer numbers, but their best win out of the ACC was Butler in November and their best in-conference victory came over Maryland at home. Couple that with a brutal stretch in their last four games- at Maryland, at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest- and their reputation for fading down the stretch, and it could be a more nervous Selection Sunday than anticipated. The Georgia Tech home game is of great importance. Would a 20-10 (8-8) record push the Tigers into the Dance? Most likely, yes. Current seed range: 9-10.
Maryland (42 RPI, 28 SOS)– The Terrapins still don’t boast an RPI top-25 win and their best win in non-conference play was at Indiana, but Maryland still stands at about the 8/9 seed range due to their impressive 7-3 ACC mark and a sweep of Florida State. The Terps still have to face likely-NCAA teams Georgia Tech, Clemson, Duke and Virginia Tech the rest of the way, but only the meeting with the Hokies is away from College Park. With trips to NC State and Virginia also sprinkled in, no game is a definite win. They need to keep picking up victories in conference play to mask an underwhelming portfolio overall. Current seed range: 8-9.
Florida State (43 RPI, 53 SOS)– FSU probably has the easiest slate of any ACC bubble-in team. The three road games remaining feature a grand total of zero teams with hopes of making the NCAA Tournament in Virginia, North Carolina and Miami. Florida State also welcomes Clemson and Wake Forest to Tallahassee. Go 3-2 at the very least during that stretch and the Seminoles should be set for a bid. Leonard Hamilton’s team picked up a non-conference win over Marquette, swept Georgia Tech and beat Virginia Tech this season. Current seed range: 8-10.
Virginia Tech (44 RPI, 180 SOS)- Virginia Tech picked up their first win over an RPI-top 25 opponent last night in their comeback victory over Wake Forest. It’s impossible to overstate how gigantic pulling out that win was- fall to Wake at home and they’re likely back on the wrong side of the bubble at fourth in the ACC with a low-100’s SOS and their best non-conference win over Seton Hall. Now the Hokies are edging themselves further into the field at 21-4 (8-3). All they have to do is take care of their three winnable games at Boston College and home vs. Maryland and NC State and they should be fine at 24-6 (11-5). Current seed range: 9-10.
Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Texas.
Baylor (13 RPI, 24 SOS)– The Bears are extremely close to moving up a notch into lock status. The reason for leaving them out this week is their schedule the rest of the way. While it’s not grueling, they don’t have a definite win remaining with Texas A&M and Texas making the trip to Waco and roadies against pesky teams Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech still to be played. Baylor does have a halfway decent non-conference portfolio with a win over Xavier and true road wins over Arkansas, Arizona State and South Carolina. Win at Oklahoma State on Saturday and Baylor is a lock. Current seed range: 5-6.
Texas Tech (39 RPI, 8 SOS)– Pat Knight’s squad had a golden opportunity to jump firmly into the bubble discussion with a defeat of Texas A&M in Lubbock on Saturday. Instead, they fell in close fashion and followed that up with a blowout loss at Baylor on Tuesday night. With only a non-conference win over road-allergic Washington, the Red Raiders have to win out just to get to 9-7 in the Big 12. It will take a heroic effort to beat Texas, Kansas State and Baylor, and the only thing keeping Tech alive is that all of those difficult games will be played on their home floor. Current seed range: Lots of work to do.
Oklahoma State (38 RPI, 36 SOS)– In all honestly, it doesn’t look good for the Cowboys. Their best non-conference win was a one-point triumph over Stanford (or Utah? Bradley? Pacific?), they sit just 5-5 in the Big 12, their starting point guard is out for the season and the remaining slate is brutal. Their next four games are home dates with Baylor and Kansas and roadies at Texas and Texas A&M. They did win at Kansas State, but with nothing to tout outside of Big 12 play, Oklahoma State really needs to get to 8-8. That would mean winning two of those aforementioned four games in a dicey proposition. Current seed range: 11-12.
Missouri (47 RPI, 63 SOS)– Despite a weak non-conference SOS overall, Missouri does have wins over likely-NCAA teams Old Dominion and Illinois and knocked off Kansas State at home in January. Playing in the #1 RPI conference means the Tigers truly only need to reach 9-7 in Big 12 play to sneak out a bid in all likelihood. That means must-win situations in these three games- at Nebraska, Colorado, at Iowa State. Slip up in one of those and now they have to beat Kansas at home or win in Manhattan. 8-8 in conference play with a mediocre RPI/SOS might spell NIT. Current seed range: 8-10.
Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh.
Louisville (30 RPI, 5 SOS)– The win at Syracuse on Sunday vaulted the Cardinals into nearly every projected bracket. Their RPI/SOS has always been indicative of an NCAA Tournament team, but they seriously lacked any semblance of a signature win. Now that’s no longer an issue for Rick Pitino. Still, Louisville only has three RPI top-50 wins on their portfolio, meaning they can’t get complacent and lose at home Wednesday vs. Notre Dame. Stealing either the Georgetown game or the return from Syracuse in Freedom Hall’s last stand would most likely seal their bid if Louisville splits their two road contests against fellow bubble teams Connecticut and Marquette. Current seed range: 10-11.
Connecticut (50 RPI, 1 SOS)– Let’s not get all hot and bothered about Connecticut’s win at Villanova on Monday night. The Huskies still have a boatload of work to do to catapult back into the bracket. Here’s the situation: Connecticut will probably get in if they can get to 9-9 in the Big East and one of those wins comes against West Virginia on February 22. That would give them wins over Texas, Villanova and West Virginia with a top-five SOS and a close loss to Kentucky. Lose that game and still finish 9-9, the Huskies will have to win at least one game in the Big East Tournament. Win out and reach 10-8, Connecticut will have completed an epic turnaround. Winning at Notre Dame on March 3 with Luke Harangody back will pose the stiffest challenge. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Cincinnati (52 RPI, 18 SOS)– The Bearcats absolutely laid an egg last night at fellow bubble team South Florida, likely putting a bad taste in the committee’s mouth. Their Maui wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland can only carry them so far and none of their Big East wins are especially impressive. They face a must-win situation at home against Marquette this Sunday because there’s still at West Virginia, Villanova and at Georgetown waiting for Cincinnati at the end of their schedule. Current seed range: Next Four Out.
South Florida (55 RPI, 45 SOS)– After losing at Marquette on Saturday, the Bulls faced a must-win situation at home Tuesday against Cincinnati and took care of business. Counting a loss at Villanova, USF could realistically finish 10-8 in the Big East if they beat St. John’s, Providence and Connecticut at home and win at DePaul. The Bulls did absolutely nothing out-of-conference (best win against Virginia), but they do have signature wins at Georgetown and over Pittsburgh at home. They’d also have bubble wins over Cincinnati, Seton Hall and Connecticut. It would likely come down to the Big East Tournament. Current seed range: Next Four Out.
Seton Hall (57 RPI, 16 SOS)– The Pirates are on the fringe and absolutely must win at St. John’s Wednesday night to stay in the bubble hunt or they have to knock off West Virginia in Morgantown as their last chance for an RPI top-25 win. Seton Hall does have home wins over Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, along with a road win at Cornell from November, but at just 5-7 in the Big East with a lackluster RPI, the Pirates need wins desperately. Their goal should be 10-8 with a chance to make a run in the Big East Tournament. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Marquette (59 RPI, 71 SOS)– The RPI is poor which means Marquette needs to keep winning games. It starts Thursday with a huge visit from Pittsburgh. Luckily for the Golden Eagles, they don’t face any of the top four Big East teams the rest of the way and their only road games are at Cincinnati, Seton Hall and St. John’s. They’ve picked up must-wins at Connecticut, at Providence and vs. South Florida in the last few weeks and now stand a tremendous chance of getting to 12-6 in the Big East. Factor in all their close defeats to quality opponents, and Marquette will be an easy selection on March 14. Current seed range: 10-12.
Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin.
Illinois (71 RPI, 79 SOS)– The Illini could be a case that comes down to the Big Ten Tournament. What’s holding them back are abominable computer numbers. What’s holding them up are four enormously impressive RPI top-50 wins at Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State and at Wisconsin and a 9-4 overall Big Ten record. Illinois still has to travel to Purdue and Ohio State. If they manage to take care of their other three games remaining at Michigan and home vs. Minnesota and Wisconsin, they should receive a bid. Their SOS should also jolt up as their Big Ten schedule increases in difficulty. Current seed range: 10-11.
Northwestern (74 RPI, 92 SOS)– They’re holding on by the slimmest of threads, folks. The loss at Iowa pretty much destroyed any hope. Even if they win four of their last five, and judging by their schedule they can definitely do so, that would put them at 22-9 (10-8) but with only one win over the RPI top 50. They’d still need to win two games in the Big Ten Tournament to receive a bid meaning the Wildcats need to pull out a miracle to receive an invite. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Pac-10
Locks: None.
California (23 RPI, 2 SOS)– The Bears are creeping into lock status. Their only remaining road games are against teams below .500 in the woeful Pac-10 and they welcome both Arizona schools to Berkeley. Cal could really separate from the rest of the conference and finish with a 14-4 record which would mirror preseason expectations. Unfortunately for seeding purposes, Cal won’t have a chance to record a win against the RPI top 50 this season. They blew their opportunity by losing to Ohio State, New Mexico and Kansas out-of-conference and the Pac-10 never provided those opportunities this season. Current seed range: 7-8.
Arizona State (65 RPI, 73 SOS)– The Sun Devils would need to win four of their last five in conference play to reach 12-6 in the Pac-10. Even at that mark, poor computer numbers and nothing quality in non-conference play probably still means Arizona State has to win the Pac-10 Tournament. They embark on a difficult three-game road swing at Arizona, Stanford and California. If they don’t win two of those three, Herb Sendek’s team will evaporate from the bubble. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Washington (53 RPI, 44 SOS)– The boys in purple missed their best chance to pick up a portfolio-building win by getting run out of the building by Jerome Randle and Cal last Thursday. The Huskies kept their slim at-large chances alive by picking up their first road win of the season Saturday at Stanford. It’s pretty simple: Washington needs to win out and reach 12-6 in the Pac-10 to have any hope. If not, they have to win the Pac-10 Tournament to receive an invite. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee.
Mississippi (51 RPI, 68 SOS)– The Rebels were my last team in the field and remain under that distinction with Mississippi State falling at home to Kentucky on Tuesday (the Bulldogs likely would have supplanted the Rebels mostly due to the season sweep of their SEC rivals). Mississippi certainly has plenty of work to do to reach the NCAA Tournament with one top-50 win back in November on a neutral floor vs. Kansas State. Their best win since then was a comeback win over UTEP in overtime. They welcome Vanderbilt to Oxford on Thursday night in a golden opportunity for Ole Miss to edge further into the field, but they can’t afford to slip up on Saturday against Florida, either. This is a classic bubble team right now. Current seed range: Last Four In.
Mississippi State (62 RPI, 109 SOS)– If only Ravern Johnson wasn’t suspended. If only Jarvis Varnado didn’t foul out. If only one or two of those questionable calls had gone their way. If only one or two more of those NBA threes would have dropped. The Bulldogs heartbreaking loss to Kentucky in OT last night puts them in a tough situation with only one chance for an RPI top-50 win remaining and that comes in the last game of the season against Tennessee on March 6. What Mississippi State needs to do is take care of business against inferior opponents and put themselves in bubble position for the Tennessee game in Starkville and the SEC Tournament that follows. Current seed range: Next Four Out.
Florida (64 RPI, 76 SOS)– The Gators dropped out of the field with two crippling losses this week at South Carolina and home vs. Xavier. Florida does have plenty of chances for quality wins the rest of the way in hopes of avoiding a third consecutive year on the outside looking in. They travel to Mississippi on Saturday and Kentucky on the last day of the regular season with home dates against Tennessee and Vanderbilt mixed in. That’s four chances vs. RPI top-50 opponents to boost their lacking portfolio. Current seed range: Last Four Out.
South Carolina (70 RPI, 32 SOS)– The fighting Devan Downey’s have two quality wins to tout over Kentucky and Richmond at home, but they also have shaky losses against Miami, Boston College and Georgia on the schedule. The Gamecocks face an absolute must-win situation at Arkansas on Wednesday night. Lose that game and it will be NIT for Downey and his crew. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Others
Locks: New Mexico, Butler, Gonzaga, BYU.
Northern Iowa (24 RPI, 128 SOS)– The Panthers probably vault into lock status if they had toppled Bradley last Saturday. They have another chance to make the move this Friday night in the first Bracketbuster game against Old Dominion at home. The SOS is seriously lacking and the Panthers only quality non-conference win came over Siena, but UNI still looks solid for a bid even if they lose in the MVC Tournament at 23-3 (14-2) and a runaway regular season conference champion. Current seed range: 6-7.
Siena (33 RPI, 123 SOS)– The Saints had chances in non-conference play against Temple, Georgia Tech and Northern Iowa and lost all three in convincing fashion. It might be a waste of breath discussing Siena’s at-large chances given the MAAC Tournament is in Albany this season, but just in case Niagara, Iona or Fairfield pulls off the unthinkable, Siena will probably generate the most ferocious debate on Selection Sunday. They’re 0-3 vs. the RPI top 50, but can you leave a 25-26 win team out of the tournament? Win at Butler on Saturday and they’ll likely have an at-large bid in their pocket even with an upset in Albany. Current seed range: 10-12.
UNLV (35 RPI, 58 SOS)– The Rebels were bordering on lock status after toppling BYU in convincing fashion two weeks ago, but since then they’ve fallen to MWC contenders New Mexico at home and at San Diego State. UNLV should still be okay for a bid, though. They beat Louisville and won at Arizona in non-conference play and picked up an incredible win at New Mexico on January 9. The only mildly threatening game the rest of the way is at Utah Wednesday night. Current seed range: 6-8.
UAB (36 RPI, 91 SOS)– The Blazers at-large bid is becoming less and less of a sure thing with a crippling loss at home to Marshall on Saturday. The win over Butler looks strong, but the Cincinnati victory is less and less impressive with every Bearcats loss. Every game is very winnable until the last two against Memphis at home and a road trip to UTEP. Lose both and UAB is firmly on the bubble. Current seed range: 9-10.
San Diego State (37 RPI, 75 SOS)– The Aztecs are back squarely in the bubble picture as the possible fourth team out of the Mountain West. SDSU did beat New Mexico and UNLV at home in conference play, but the two-point defeats at New Mexico and home vs. BYU sting as golden opportunities fumbled away. Factoring in a loss at BYU next Wednesday, the Aztecs could absolutely win out and finish 23-8 (11-5) with a good RPI and a weak non-conference portfolio. That would put them firmly on the bubble, as well. Current seed range: Last Four Out.
Old Dominion (40 RPI, 96 SOS)– The Monarchs could be an intriguing case come Selection Sunday. The road win at Georgetown is absolutely huge and they’ll likely finish 15-3 in a competitive CAA. The #34 RPI is also very solid and their seed keeps climbing. What ODU cannot afford to do is slip up early in the CAA Tournament and place doubts in the mind of the committee of their legitimacy. Winning at Northern Iowa on Friday would give them a lot more breathing room. Current seed range: 9-10.
Utah State (45 RPI, 107 SOS)- The RPI keeps climbing, but Utah State won’t garner an at-large bid this year even if they win out in regular season play. With Louisiana Tech slipping and Nevada unable to find their bearing, the Aggies should be favored in the WAC Tournament by a wide margin and pose a definite threat to any four of five seed when the brackets are unveiled. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Saint Mary’s (46 RPI, 113 SOS)- The only difference between my bracket and Joe Lunardi’s bracket this Monday was Mississippi and Saint Mary’s. I had the Rebels in because their win over Kansas State is a victory the Gaels cannot come close to matching. They could really use that two-point loss to Vanderbilt back in November in the win column right now. It’s an absolute must that St. Mary’s reaches the WCC Final and plays Gonzaga tough. If not, they’ll be NIT-bound for the second straight year. Current seed range: Last Four Out.
William & Mary (48 RPI, 86 SOS)- The Tribe had a huge week beating CAA-leader Northeastern at home and winning at George Mason on Tuesday night, keeping their slim at-large hopes alive. We know about the Maryland and Wake Forest wins in non-conference play, but just an 11-5 mark (including bad losses to James Madison and UNC-Wilmington) means William & Mary must win out and reach the CAA Tournament final to enter the at-large discussion. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Wichita State (49 RPI, 130 SOS)– The loss to previously winless Evansville did the Shockers in as an at-large bid contender. Wichita State also lost road games to Illinois State, Creighton and Drake. They’ll have to play bid stealer in the MVC Tournament. Current seed range: lots of work to do.
Cornell (54 RPI, 193 SOS)- The non-conference wins at Alabama and St. John’s just are not holding up as quality victories anymore which means the Big Red must win the Ivy League regular season title. They bounced back from the enormous upset at Penn to win at Princeton, but a loss at Harvard this Friday night would vault Princeton right back into first place. Current seed range: 11-12.
UTEP (56 RPI, 133 SOS)– Even with a loss at Tulsa on Saturday (which is actually a very winnable game), the Miners would stand at 14-2 in Conference USA. That would make a very interesting case for the committee if UTEP falls in the C-USA Tournament. 14-2 is impressive but the conference as a whole is down and the Miners best non-conference win came over flailing Oklahoma. Winning at Tulsa on Saturday and finishing 15-1 would lock up an at-large berth. Current seed range: 12-13.
Memphis (58 RPI, 74 SOS)– Just like UTEP, Memphis probably has to reach 14-2 in the conference to garner serious at-large consideration with a lackluster non-conference portfolio. That would mean winning at UAB and beating Tulsa at FedEx Forum. Current seed range: lots of work to do.