Rush The Court

John Templon of Chicago College Basketball is the RTC correspondent for the Horizon League.

Standings:

1. Butler 8-0
2. Green Bay 6-2
3. Detroit 5-3
4. Wright State 4-4
5. Valparaiso 4-4
6. Milwaukee 3-4
7. Cleveland State 3-4
8. Loyola (IL) 3-5
9. Youngstown State 2-6
10. UIC 1-7

Top Storylines:

• Home team domination. It is tough to win on the road in the Horizon League. Home teams are 29-8 in league play this season. That’s why you see so many teams bunched up right around .500. The only teams that seem to be bucking this trend are Butler and UIC. The Flames are having problems winning anywhere (though their one victory did come over Detroit at the Pavilion) and the Bulldogs play well anywhere. Even Butler’s two closest games have come on the road at Loyola and Detroit.
• Hot button tournament. The Horizon League Tournament format is raising some ire lately. The tournament features double-byes for the Top 2 seeds and forces everyone except those two teams to play on back-to-back nights at some point. This can be troubling for a team trying to win its way into the NCAA Tournament (especially considering the tournament is played on the home court of the highest seed). A real premium is placed on the 18-game regular season conference schedule which uses a true home-away series.

Team Breakdowns:

I’m going to do things a little differently this week. This will probably be an every-other-week sort of thing. I keep detailed “per possessions” results of all the teams in the Horizon League during conference play and I wanted to share some insights about the conference that come from those numbers.

• The Luckiest: In conference play, that award goes to Green Bay. This is a function of the fact that the Phoenix suffered a bad loss to their rivals at Milwaukee. Green Bay plays much better at home than they do on the road and five of their eight games have been at the Resch Center.
• The Unluckiest: Detroit is the winner here. The Titans are the second best team in the Horizon League according to the numbers, but they managed to lose an unbelievably close game to Butler at home and lost squeakers to UIC and Green Bay on the road. There is no more margin for error for Ray McCallum’s team if they want to be in the top two. Wright State comes to Detroit on Saturday for another key game.
• Burning up the nets: Of course, Butler leads the league in points per possession. The Bulldogs have a ton of offensive talent. Also, Green Bay with Rahmon Fletcher and Bryquis Perine are second. What might surprise people is that Valparaiso ranks third. The Crusaders are led by the Horizon League’s leading scorer, Brandon Wood. The sophomore scores more than 18 PPG. Of course Valparaiso also makes every Horizon League team look like the Bulldogs on offense, which explains the Crusaders’ 4-4 conference record.
• Making life difficult for opponents: Detroit has the best defense in the league. It is even better than Butler’s on a per possession basis during conference play (the Bulldogs rank second).  The Titans have a huge front line that is forcing opponents to shoot a lot of contested shots. Milwaukee is in the middle of the conference pack regarding defense, as well. The Panthers have tons of trouble scoring, but a tight defense has kept them in games all season.
• The frontrunner: Oh yes, you know this is Butler. The Bulldogs have the best offense (by far) and the second best defense in the league. Their efficiency margin per possession is twice as good as any other team. This is a team that could run the table. Now, there will be hiccups along the way, like Thursday’s near-miss against Loyola. Detroit is a solid second, but Green Bay currently holds the edge by a game in conference record. The race for second, which might also include Wright State, is going to be exciting to watch. Typically, that’s the team that gets the chance to knock off Butler in the championship game, so I’m sure everyone in the conference will be paying close attention.

Saturday’s Games (times Eastern):

• Wright State @ Detroit – Saturday at 2 p.m.
• Valparaiso @ Loyola – Saturday at 4 p.m.